Accounting Assignment代写 情景分析
ASSIGNMENT代写

Accounting Assignment代写 情景分析

2016-12-15 05:35

情景分析是一种风险分析方法。它需要找出有效的因素和内部条件做一个假设和预测的事件。然后尝试分析和预测未来的发展和结果事件的情况。它是一种定性的方法分析决策者的选择(Ndiaye和Pesenti拉克斯,2006)。因为场景分析的复杂性,很难预测未来。有时未来可能会影响其他事故,所以有时不能得到正确结果的分析现实(Ndiaye和Pesenti拉克斯,2006)。

根据情景分析,这表明每一个变量的一个“好”的情况下需要一个小比基本情况。其他的方式,每一个变量“糟糕”的情况下需要一个小比基本情况(阿诺德,2005)。所以尽量设置一些日期从它,做一个假设:

正如我们所知,它不会被接受该项目,如果最好的和更糟的结果是负面的。它将被接受,如果最好的和糟糕的结果是积极的(僧侣和米,2004)。从图表显示的比较案例基本情况和最佳情况越糟糕。

稍微更改数据,它表明,最坏的情况下净现值为负,和最好的情况下NPV是正的。用另一种方式,它总是发生,所以这是正常的结果,没有任何帮助。最重要的是,它不显示这个场景分析的有用的结果。

Accounting Assignment代写 情景分析

Scenario analysis is one of risk analysis method.It need to find out the effective factors and internal condition to make an assumption and prediction of the event.Then try to analysis and predict the future develpment and result of this event conditon.It is a qualitative method for analysis for the choice of  decision maker(Laxton, Ndiaye and Pesenti, 2006).Because of complexity of the scenario analysis,it is difficult to make an prediction of the future.Sometimes the future might affect by other accidents,so it sometimes cannot get a correct result of this analysis to the reality(Laxton, Ndiaye and Pesenti, 2006).
According to the scenario analysis,it shows that every variable of a “good” case need to be a little better than the base case.In the other way,every variable of “worse” case need to be a little worse than the base case (Arnold, 2005). So it try to set some date from it and make an assumption as follow:
 
As we know,it will not be accepted the project,if the best and worse result are negative.It will be accepted,if the best and worse result is positive (Monks and Minow, 2004).From the chart,it show that the comparison of the worse case and best case with base case.
With the slightly change data,it shows that the worst case NPV is negative,and the best case NPV  is positive.In another way,it always happen like that, so it is the normal result and doesn`t have any help.Above all,it does not show the useful result of this scenario analysis.